Russia’s attempts to intimidate Ukraine with threats of new strikes on Kyiv may be hindered by fears of using the “Oreshnik” missile on the capital due to its inaccuracy and the risk of hitting foreign targets.
Shelling of Kyiv (illustrative photo)
Russia’s threats to intensify strikes on Kyiv signal not Kremlin strength, but an effort to intimidate Ukraine amidst damaging attacks on Russian oil refineries, energy infrastructure, and the military-industrial complex.
This was stated by military expert Pavlo Narozhnyi, founder of the charitable organization “Reactive Mail,” on Radio NV.
According to him, Moscow conventionally attempts to “raise the stakes” when facing internal challenges.
“This means their oil refineries are burning. It means our strikes on their energy sector and military-industrial complex are quite painful. And they are doing everything to scare us. This is Putin’s standard tactic. Always raise the stakes,” Narozhnyi said.
Can Russia repeat massive strikes?
The expert believes that Russia still possesses the capability for new large-scale attacks on Ukraine, including the use of “Shahed” drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
However, Narozhnyi pointed out that the repeated use of the “Oreshnik” missile on Kyiv is a separate issue. He emphasized that Moscow might be apprehensive about such a strike due to the weapon’s imprecision and the potential for unforeseen consequences.
“We see they are afraid to use it against Kyiv. It is not a precision weapon. It is a weapon that covers a considerable area and is not accurate,” the expert explained.
He added that the submunitions of the “Oreshnik” deploy at high altitudes, meaning the strike could hit any object in the city, not just the intended target.
“They could hit anything. The Chinese or US embassies, diplomats, citizens who are representatives of American companies present in Kyiv,” Narozhnyi elaborated.
Ukrainians urged to prepare for new attacks
The military expert stressed that Russia’s statements about new strikes should be viewed as an intimidation tactic, but the threat should not be ignored.
“Will there be such a strike? I am more than confident there will be. There will be ballistic missiles too. Everyone is well aware of our issues with Patriot ammunition. There will be massive ‘Shahed’ attacks,” he stated.
Narozhnyi urged Ukrainians to heed air raid alerts, maintain a supply of water, and prepare a basic emergency backpack.
The “Oreshnik” strike on May 24 — what is known
In the early hours of May 24, Russia deployed a medium-range ballistic missile, the “Oreshnik,” against Ukraine. According to the Air Force, this marks the third instance of the Russian army using this type of armament.
The missile was launched from the Kapustin Yar training ground. The impact was registered in Bila Tserkva, Kyiv region, with a hit confirmed in one of the city’s districts.
Although Russia’s primary target for the night attack was Kyiv, the Russians likely deliberately planned the “Oreshnik” strike specifically on Bila Tserkva. An airfield could have been one of the potential targets. Meanwhile, according to the OSINT channel “Cyber Boroshno,” the missile hit a garage cooperative.
Reports also surfaced online suggesting that Russia might have launched two “Oreshnik” missiles that night. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted that one of the aerial targets likely malfunctioned and fell within the territory of the occupied Donetsk region.
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