Despite the Russian propaganda’s attempts to conceal the real losses in the war against Ukraine, a potential general mobilization could prove fatal for Putin and incite unrest among the middle class.
A new mobilization in Russia could ultimately destroy Putin’s regime / © Associated Press
If, in the autumn of 2026, after the so-called elections, the Kremlin announces a general mobilization to draft another 300,000 men for the war against Ukraine, this decision could trigger an internal collapse of the Putin system. The conscription of residents from affluent regions of Russia could lead to mass protests among the mothers of conscripts, similar to what happened during the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
This opinion was expressed by former British military officer, Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, in an opinion piece for The Telegraph.
Why Hasn’t Russia Rebelled Yet?
The author recalls that during the Afghan campaign, the deaths of approximately 18,000 Soviet conscripts and the arrival of “zinc coffins” provoked marches by Russian mothers to the Kremlin. This became one of the significant factors in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, mass riots have not yet occurred in the war against Ukraine, although Russian casualties have already reached a staggering 1.5 million people, according to Kyiv’s estimates.
The British officer explains this phenomenon by the categories of people who are dying on the Ukrainian front today. According to him, Putin has successfully avoided forcibly sending ethnic Russians from wealthy families to their deaths. The Russian army actively recruits prisoners, mercenaries, and men from depressed regions, whom the authorities lure with anomalously high salaries.
For the elites of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, these individuals serve as obvious “expendable material.” In contrast, their own sons receive safe positions or avoid military service altogether.
“This army is not marching confidently towards victory. It is a meat grinder that grinds young men on an industrial scale,” emphasizes Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.
Threat to the Middle Class and Consequences of Mobilization
A general mobilization of 300,000 individuals could drastically alter the political landscape in the Russian Federation, as the war would knock on the doors of comfortable homes in western Russia for the first time. Instead of Chechens, Buryats, or criminal offenders, the sons of wealthy Russians would be sent to die in Donbas. The colonel emphasizes that the urban middle class possesses money, influence, and access to information from the open world.
These individuals are fully aware of the crisis state of the Russian economy and the country’s transformation into a global pariah. Although Putin will try to protect his inner circle, he will not be able to shield everyone from conscription. And this is precisely where the greatest danger lies for the dictator.
Lack of Resources and the Dictator’s Flawed Strategy
Even if the Kremlin manages to mobilize another 300,000 men, sheer numbers will not bring the desired victory. The author notes that the army desperately needs competent officers, modern equipment, and time for training. However, Russia has already depleted its training centers and sent experienced instructors to the front.
Now, new recruits receive only basic training before being thrown into the crucible of battle. Putin hopes to simply outlast Ukraine and its allies, expecting victory through the exhaustion of his adversaries. However, the Kremlin’s hysteria regarding Kyiv’s Western partners only indicates Moscow’s deep disappointment due to its own battlefield failures.
“Great Britain, France, and our European allies must ignore these threats and focus on one thing: keeping Ukraine armed, supplied, and capable of fighting. Putin’s threats are only intended to scare us into doing the opposite,” concludes the military expert.
Ultimately, Ukraine’s successful defense will lead to the maximum possible exhaustion of the Russian army. After this, the aggressor will lack the strength for decades to threaten other European nations.
It is worth noting that a new wave of mobilization has already begun in Russia, even before their so-called elections, as warned by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy just days ago. Experts believe this conscription will also impact mobilization in Ukraine.
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