Russian forces are escalating their ballistic missile production to bypass air defense systems and are bolstering their capabilities for massive combined attacks.
Missile threat / © TSN
Russian occupation forces have shifted their priorities in long-range weapon production, focusing on systems capable of more effectively overcoming Ukrainian air defenses.
This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing data from Ukrainian intelligence and military command.
According to Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), since April 2026, Russia has concentrated its efforts on producing ballistic and cruise missiles. The enemy’s primary objective is to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of interceptor missiles for Patriot systems. From April to July, the intensity of monthly ballistic missile launches into Ukrainian territory more than tripled.
Targets of particular focus are defense industry facilities, aimed at preventing Ukraine from developing its own ballistic weapon production.
Record Pace and Focus on New Munitions
Russia’s military-industrial complex is exceeding monthly production plans for key missile types by 10–20%. As of early August, Russia had already fully met its annual production plan for the Zircon and Oniks anti-ship missiles.
To accelerate ballistic missile production, Russians have paused the manufacturing of the less accurate Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles and the Kh-32 cruise missiles. Additionally, the enemy has adapted S-400 missile launchers for specially designed RM-48U missiles, which strike ground targets along a ballistic trajectory.
ISW analysts note that for current attacks, Russia is primarily using “fresh” missiles straight off the production line, without touching strategic reserves. This tactic allows them to accumulate arsenals for potential exceptionally powerful single strikes.
Salvo of up to 200 Missiles and the Kalibr Situation
Major Robert “Madjar” Brovdi, Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that Russia is currently capable of launching a simultaneous salvo of 77 missiles of various types. However, the adversary is intensifying efforts to increase this number to 200 missiles in a single combined strike package.
Meanwhile, occupiers have almost ceased using Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles for daily attacks. Due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense, which intercepts nearly 100% of these missiles, and regular strikes by the Defense Forces on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the enemy is forced to stockpile Kalibrs and redeploy them to other fleets outside the Black Sea.
Earlier, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, stated that Russia is fulfilling its missile plan, so a pause in shelling is unlikely.
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