Ukraine’s long-range strikes might trigger significant political shifts within Russia.
Volodymyr Putin / © Associated Press
An escalation of Ukraine’s long-range attacks on Russian territory could impact not only the military situation but also the sentiments within the Russian leadership.
This viewpoint was shared by Volodymyr Ohryzko, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
He speculates that Volodymyr Putin’s inner circle might already be exploring avenues to preserve their influence in the event of a change in power.
Ohryzko pointed out that at the end of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the commencement of a 40-day operation utilizing long-range weapons. The diplomat believes that such pressure could compel the Russian elite to contemplate their future.
According to him, non-public negotiations among various power groups may currently be occurring around Putin.
“Groups are forming around Putin who wish to remove him, as they realize that otherwise, they themselves might be removed,” stated Ohryzko.
The diplomat suggests that representatives of the Russian elite might already be discussing who will become the country’s next leader and how to present this individual to Western partners.
Why the Russian Elite Might Turn Against Putin
In Ohryzko’s opinion, many influential individuals in Russia understand that the war and international isolation increasingly jeopardize them personally. This is precisely why they might attempt to distance themselves from the current president.
As an illustration, the diplomat presented a hypothetical representative from the Kremlin’s closest circle.
“Putin has completely discredited himself; he has shown himself to be a criminal. If I don’t hand him over voluntarily, then I will also be a criminal,” Ohryzko described the potential sentiments among the Russian elite in this manner.
He claims that such individuals might try to convince the West that Russia will change after Putin’s departure, and the new leadership will be open to different relations with the international community.
The former Foreign Minister believes that the primary argument for the Russian elites will be the necessity of preserving Russia as a unified state. They might persuade Western countries that only a new government can prevent internal chaos, civil war, or problems with controlling nuclear weapons.
The diplomat suggests that their future negotiation strategy with the West may be built upon this premise.
Concurrently, Ohryzko emphasized that this is solely his perspective on the situation. He hypothesizes that similar processes might already be unfolding behind the scenes in the Kremlin, but there is currently no official confirmation of this.
We remind you that The i Paper reported that Ukraine, through its attacks, has humiliated Putin in his hometown, St. Petersburg. In June, Ukrainian long-range drones and missiles struck strategic targets in Russia’s second-largest city. Experts note that Petersburg holds special significance for the “fuhrer” as it is where he was born, worked in the city hall, and began his political career.
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