The range of potential scenarios for the conclusion of the Russo-Ukrainian war has significantly narrowed, according to a foreign analyst.
How the war will end: why Putin is left with only two options / © TSN.ua
Every war concludes in one of five ways: conquest, official surrender, de facto surrender, cessation of hostilities (disengagement of forces), or negotiation.
Michael MacArthur Bosak, an international negotiator and founder of Parley Policy Initiative, analyzed how Russia’s war against Ukraine might end and which of these options are most probable for Ukraine in an article for Kyiv Post.
The analyst posits that complete conquest or Ukraine’s surrender have become impossible. In his view, Ukraine is currently in its strongest negotiating position since the autumn of 2022. Thanks to “long-range sanctions”—regular strikes on oil refineries and military targets deep within Russian territory—Kyiv has brought the war to Russia’s doorstep. Ordinary Russian citizens are increasingly feeling the repercussions of Putin’s adventure in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Bosak notes that Ukraine is also not in a strong enough position to seize and hold new territories.
Therefore, he identifies only two realistic outcomes for the war’s finale:
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A cessation of hostilities—a unilateral withdrawal of depleted Russian forces.
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A compromise peace agreement through negotiations.
“Both of these could happen,” suggests Michael MacArthur Bosak.
The expert speculates that if the cost of aggression proves too high for Russia, Putin might simply declare that he has “achieved his goals.” A complete withdrawal of troops is, of course, politically unfeasible for Putin’s government, so Russia would retain its hold on occupied Ukrainian territories.
“Naturally, such a form of ceasefire would require Kyiv to make a decision: whether it is prepared to accept prolonged occupation, or if military efforts must continue to liberate these regions,” the analyst contemplates.
At the same time, Bosak explains that these factors do not imply that peace is imminent.
“The war could continue for weeks, months, or years before either side concludes that further hostilities will no longer improve its position… The question now is how both sides will adapt their strategies to the changing dynamics of power, both on the battlefield and, ultimately, at the negotiating table,” he concluded.
Recall that Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a “real prospect” of ending the war after a call with Trump.
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